I've read a number of published reports on the net stating that Venezuela has five oil refineries, three of which will be shut down by year-end because of non-compliance. I confirmed this report with the US House of Representatives subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology. You can confirm it too if you wish to spend the time necessary to call Dr. Fox with the professional staff of that subcommittee.

My question is, "So what?" I would appreciate some knowledgeable person, with facts, to put this report in context. Venezuala provides 17% of our petroleum. Does the future refinery shutdown in Venezuela indicate a loss of 10% of our oil imports? Or do those refineries only produce small quantities or highly specialized products? Or does all of the US oil come from the two refineries which are expected to remain operational? Or do the two compliant refineries have excess capacity? Are Venezuelan refineries disproportionately affected by the bug as compared to Middle East or North Sea? Is there enough known compliant refinery capacity in the world to meet current needs?

I am a layman still sifting through facts and opinions in developing a y2k worldview. Any knowledgeable information will be appreciated.

-- Puddintame (nomail@nomail.com), January 11, 1999

Answers

I'm sorry I can't give you any knowledgeable sources but I do wish to thank you for reminding us of an important fact. That is to remain skeptical and take what seems to be positive proof as what is more likely to be mere speculation, especially when it comes to projected repercussions from say a 10% failure in Venezuela's oil exports.

Thanks again for staying level headed and keep up that investigative work. The rest of us appreciate your dedication!

-- Adam (Y2KSrivor@aol.com), January 11, 1999.

I just learned that both AP and Dow JonesNewswires have articles that indicate that China has said that they will have problems with thier refineries. This is from another list...I haven't gone to the source yet myself. Following are stories from Associated Press and Dow Jones on the problems at one of China's biggest petroleum operators, which I found on the SA Press Association wire service tonight. CHINA-MILLENNIUM SINGAPORE Jan 11 Sapa-AP CHINA NATIONAL PETROLEUM OFFICIAL PREDICTS `DISASTERS9 FROM Y2K BUG 3Disasters2 will befall the refining facilities of one of China9s key petroleum operators when the millennium bug strikes, said a senior official from the company on Monday. The year 2000 glitch 3will lead to unimaginable results2 for China National Petroleum Corp., the official was quoted as saying by Dow Jones Newswires, speaking on condition of anonymity in a telephone interview from Beijing. He did not elaborate. With 46 percent of China9s total crude refining capacity, the oil exploration and production company is one of 18 state-owned enterprises recently told by China9s State Council to immediately address the millennium bug. The glitch will affect the operation of 48 of the company9s 50 kinds of computer-based refining facilities and equipment, said the official. Once affected, the refining units will be out of control, he added. Last month, China National Petroleum held an emergency meeting to urge its subsidiary refiners to solve the problem before September 1999, according to the official. He noted that the company has also sought assistance from overseas suppliers of the computer-based equipment. China Petroleum News reported Saturday that the software defect will affect about 30 percent of China National Petroleum9s 24,118 computer-based geological sensors and other equipment used in crude production and refining. Sapa-AP Millenium Bug Seen Hitting China National Petroleum Corp SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)The millennium bug will bring "disasters" to the refining units of China National Petroleum Corp., a senior CNPC refining official told Dow Jones Newswires Monday. The bug will affect the operation of 48 of CNPC9s 50 kinds of computer-based refining facilities and equipment, the official said. Once affected, the refining units will be out of control, he said. "It will lead to unimaginable results," he said, declining to elaborate. At the end of 1998, CNPC called an emergency meeting, urging its subsidiary refiners to solve the problem before September 1999. One solution is preparing an extra copy of refining-related data, he said. CNPC also has sought assistance from overseas suppliers of the computer-based equipment, according to the official. China Petroleum News reported Saturday that the bug will affect about 30% of CNPC9s 24,118 computer-based geological sensors and other equipment used in crude production and refining. CNPC is one of 18 key state-owned companies told by the State Council to prioritize preventing problems expected to arise from computers with date-sensitive software. CNPC is a state-run oil company that focuses on oil exploration and production. It has a crude refining capacity of about 1 million cubic tons, about 46% of the national total. The bug also will affect CNPC9s oilfields, but not as seriously. -By Xu Yihe; 65 421 4815; yxu

ap.org (END) Dow Jones Newswires 11-01-99 0651GMT(AP-DJ- -01-11-99 0651GMT) --------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------

-- Mary Phillips (blufrogg@garlic.com), January 11, 1999.

I don't have any bookmarks on the Venezuelan oil refineries. However, I would like to refer you to a story about BP from Australia:

http://www.afr.com.au/content/990107/inform/inform5.html

"A survey conducted by oil major BP of its 15,000-strong customer base has found that many of the company's customers and suppliers are far from prepared for the millennium bug."

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 11, 1999.

One FERC graphic at http://www.ferc.fed.us/Y2K/g3forweb.html indicates that while the USA imports a large proportion of crude oil, it imports relativley little refined oil products. If that is accurate, the domestic USA effects of those Venezualan refineries would be only indirect. i.e. it may encourage additional export of US refined products. However, if domestic US refineries have substantial Y2K problems, which would not surprise me a one bit, Katie, bar the door!

Jerry (Why is it always Katie who gets to bar the door?)

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), January 12, 1999.

"Venezuela has five oil refineries, three of which will be shut down" "so what?"

Well, if Venezuela provides 17% of our oil, and other countries provide 50%, and if Venezuela has 3 refineries non-compliant by 2000, how many will the Gulf have non-compliant? Is it ok to assume that Kuwait will be compliant? Is ok for that matter, to assume that our own refinieries will be compliant? Didn't I read that Chevron officially threw in the towel?

My question is, how many refineries have actualy said that they will be compliant? Will that be enough?

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 12, 1999.

The U.S. imports 53% of its oil. Japan imports 100% of its oil. Sobering statistics.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 12, 1999.

Perhaps the global supply of oil is where attention should be focused. If 60% of Venezuela's oil goes missing, then the loss of those millions of gallons--not just the relatively small percentage we import--will have some effect in the U.S. Venezuela itself, and its more dependent oil customers, will need to make up the loss via other oil-producing countries. If Country A shuts down X refineries, B shuts down Y refineries, etc., then you're going to have a *world-wide* shortage of whatever amount is involved. Anyone remember the mid-70s? Soaring energy prices, long lines, rationing, brown-outs, blackouts. Except this time, no matter how friendly some oil-producing countries are, increased extraction won't be possible, let alone long-distance transport. Remembering the energy shortages 20 years ago was a strong factor in my Y2K preparedness--I recall only too well the shootings that occurred in gas queues, as well as the innumerable cases of gas theft (by siphoning from vehicles). Inventory note: several used bicycles, locking gas caps, solar set-ups. . .

-- anon (anon@spamproblems.com), January 12, 1999.

I worry more about the tankers that transport the oil .

We may be looking at a 53% reduction in our oil supply .:o(

-- Mike (mickle2@aol.com), January 12, 1999.

A recent thread indicated that the basis for Gary's report that oil refineries would be rebuilt instead of repaired was a decision by the industry in general, and Exxon in particular, to "fix-on-failure". Does anyone have any background information on Exxon (or the industry) for that? The potential for a worldwide petroleum shortage seems to me the best argument for TEOTWAWKI and that the utility industry will collapse. (And here I am firmly stuck at prepare for 5-6.) Appreciate the other posts.

Gary North on Fuel Production Plants

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), January 12, 1999.

A 1/13/99 Westergard site article by Victor Porlier, in discussing a 1/7/99 Koskinen report, apparently quotes that report as saying: "the U.S. imports 53 percent of its crude oil and seven percent of the refined oil it consumes". That suggests that if 17% of our oil comes from Venezuela, it is mostly crude, so a shutdoown of 3 of the 5 oil refineries is not as significant as it might appear.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), January 13, 1999.