In Wired News, an article about Bankers and Utilities, quotes NERC (North American Electric Reliability Council) Y2k Project Manager, Gerry Cauley as saying that about 500 power distribution companies (1/6th of the total of approximately 3,000) have not joined in NERC's Y2k project. He goes on to say that of those that signed on, 35 percent still have no written Y2k project plan. Then he gives us the good news: Among the companies that are participating, 45 percent of systems had been fixed and tested as of 11 November 1998.

Article link: http://www.wired.com/news/news/business/story/16618.html

Now, to make sense of this statistical gobbledegook:

There are approximately 3,000 electrical distributors. Of these, 500 (or approximately 1/6th) have not joined the program. That means that 2,500 have joined.

Of the 2,500 who have joined, 35 percent (or 875) have no written plan. In other words, they are not "participating".

That leaves 1,625 who are "participating". Of these, 45 percent (or 731) are fixed and tested.

Out of 3,000 companies, 2,269 are not ready, not testing, not compliant, not "playing".

To continue this statistical shell-game; let us assume for purposes of this scenario, that each electrical distribution company serves approximately the same number of people.

Of the 3,000 electrical distribution companies, 731 are tested and passed. That leaves 2,269 or 75.6% not ready.

What this shows us is, that of the 260 million population in the U.S., 196.6 million people (or 75.6%) could be without power if tomorrow was January 1, 2000.

The lights are not on, but everybody's home?

Bobbi Y2k? http://www.buzzbyte.com/ Got Beans? Got Water?

-- Bobbi (volfnat@northweb.com), December 04, 1998

Answers

Well you could also assume that 45% of those not joining the NERC would be compliant anyway.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 04, 1998.