This seems to be another question to add to the melting pot of "what is REALLY going to happen in 2000?? Please read the synopsis of solar flares and what it can do to the electrical grid throughout the world.

"Satellite operators and users of satellite technology are less impressed with the onset of this new cycle of activity. The increased number of sunspots implies an attendant increase in the number of solar flares capable of spewing out particles that can charge and damage sensitive electronic components. The number of associated Earth-directed coronal mass ejections will also increase. This all means that users and owners of satellite technology will have to be increasingly aware of potential Earth-bound interplanetary disturbances. The death of the Telstar 401 satellite has been unofficially attributed to the arrival of such a disturbance, combined with the effects of higher-than-normal densities of energetically charged electrons. That particular interplanetary disturbance was about the size of a mouse when you think of what is yet to come over the next 4 to 6 years. The largest interplanetary disturbances which we will observe during solar cycle 23 may be closer in size to an elephant than the small mouse we observed that may have contributed to the sudden death of Telstar 401. The overwhelming message which should be sent to users of satellite technology during this new solar cycle is "be cautious."

Electrical hydro operators have enjoyed several years of quiet conditions. Nothing similar in magnitude to the events of March 1989 have been observed, where almost the entire electrical grid of electricity supplied to the province of Quebec collapsed within less than 2 minutes due to powerful electrical currents that were induced into Hydro Quebec's electrical power lines during one of the strongest geomagnetic storms on record. Since most of the electrical power lines and companies interconnect their lines, this outage had impacts all across North America. The additional load drawn from other power companies to compensate for the loss observed during the Quebec blackout brought many other power companies close to similar failure conditions. If the situation was slightly worse, other blackouts across North America could have been observed - possibly making this a much larger continent-wide type of power blackout instead of a relatively localized province-wide Quebec blackout.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory studied the effects that a geomagnetic storm might have on the U.S. economy if the storm was only slightly larger than the one observed in March 1989. Their estimate of the impact of such a disturbance to the Gross Domestic Product alone put total economic costs in the U.S. in the $3 to $6 BILLION dollar range! This assessment, along with reviews conducted by the North American Electric Reliability Council placed the 1989 and 1991 geomagnetic storm events in a category equivalent to hurricane Hugo and the San Francisco earthquake in its relative impact to the reliability of the electric power grids in North America. That's a sobering thought for hydro operators and everyone reliant upon electricity!

The ability to predict conditions condusive to such large storm events will receive a considerable boost later this year when NASA's ACE satellite (Advanced Composition Explorer) is due to be launched. This satellite will provide near-continuous sampling of the space environment upstream of the Earth. It will provide as much as about 60 minutes of lead-time to the arrival of disturbances at the Earth. This should be sufficient time to allow hydro operators to prepare and watch for the damaging conditions that can follow interplanetary disturbances.

Predictions of geomagnetic activity show that the number of minor, major and severe geomagnetic storms will steadily increase. The year with the maximum number of minor storm days is expected in the year 2005 during the decline of solar cycle 23 when the occurrence frequency of geoeffective coronal holes will reach a maximum. Over 40 minor storm days are expected in the year 2005. During the solar maximum year of 2000, coronal mass ejection induced minor storms should number at about 30 during the year. This is more than double the number of minor storm days expected during 1997. Major geomagnetic storming is expected to peak in the years between 1999 and 2002. Severe geomagnetic storming, which is very difficult to predict, should peak in frequency between the years 1999 and 2005 with the preferred year of peak severe storm frequency being 2002.

People interested in observing aurora's will be happy to know that we are well on our way to seeing larger events. Over the next 3 to 6 years, we will see many very significant auroral displays that should cover much of the U.S. and all of Canada. Activity observed during the last 3 years has been very miniscule compared to the events we can expect to observe during this new cycle. The largest of these events should be sufficiently intense to produce visible auroral activity from as far south as Florida! Although this is horrendous news for satellite users, radio communicators, navigators, surveyors and others, it is exciting news for those who love to watch for these awesomely powerful atmospheric displays of activity.

The frequency and magnitude of solar flares is also expected to increase considerably over the next 3 to 6 years. Over the last few years, most of the solar flares we have observed have been very small and insignificant. As we approach the new millenium, the influence and power output of solar flares could increase by several orders of magnitude. The largest solar flares of this new solar cycle will almost certainly be at least 10,000 times more powerful than the majority of smaller flares we have observed over the last couple of years. These rogue flares could begin to be observed as early as 1998 with a peak expected in the years between 1999 and 2003.

These are just a few of the events we can expect to observe during this new solar cycle. The new millenium should be ushered in a BANG! Periods of solar activity will be observed that will be capable of literally shaking space!

current auroral activity sighting reports, daily reports, alerts and warnings, and much more can now be found at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar)

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), November 08, 1998

Answers

I read something on the net recently about solar activity peaking early in 2000, and that the effects of this solar activity might cause confusion about why a system was down--Y2K or solar activity.

I don't know much about this subject, but I do try to follow it some. I've been going to a site every couple of days to see whether activity is up or not. I think it's run by Ham radio operators and has recent graphs. It's at--

http://dxlc.com/solar

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), November 08, 1998.

As I understand it, the dangers confronting us, ranked by order of importance, are:

1) y2k

2) The Asian economic meltdown

3) The peaking of the solar flare cycle

4) The expected severe Leonid showers in 11/99

5) The GPS rollover next August 21

6) The decayed moral fiber of America's youth

7) The dilapidated US educational system

8) Jesse Ventura's election

YMMV.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 08, 1998.

I'll take Jesse the body in exchange for Newt Gingrich. Good riddance to the Contract On America.

-- Anti-chainsaw (Tree@hugger.com), November 08, 1998.

Laurane,

The last solar cycle, peaking in 1989, was one of the severest on record. Before it, electrical utilities had never had experience with the effects of a solar storm of the severity of the one that hit Quebec in 1989, so did not have sufficient safeguards in place to protect their networks from the effects.

Now that electrical utilities have had that 1989 experience, the industry has had ten years to prepare for the next solar maximum. I think it's reasonable to expect that electrical disturbances from solar causes alone will be better contained and managed in this cycle than it was in the last cycle.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), November 08, 1998.

To All: The following sites have as good or better information as http://solar.uleth.ca/solar, AND are free and aren't trying to sell you the information! (http://solar.uleth.ca/solar is selling reports for $9)

Sunspots and the Solar Cycle

Geomagnetic Storms and Impacts on Power Systems

Sunspot Cycle Predictions

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), November 08, 1998.

NSP - Using the line of reasoning that there have been 11 years to fix the problem, the Y2K problem should be fixed, too. I believe several companies discovered it when they attempted to do long term planning in 1989/1990. Ofcourse, maybe those companies are compliant. We can only hope! 8-)

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), November 08, 1998.

The way I understand it, the reason that Hydro Quebec has a problem with solar storms is because of the massive lengths of transmission lines which run at very high voltages of necessity from James Bay in northern Quebec through the widerness areas in great stretches with no human habitation. The longer the line and the higher the voltage the more susceptible to problems. I don't know if Hydro Quebec can do anything to solve this problem, but they have a poor record of maintenance according to our local utility.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), November 08, 1998.

Tricia the C.,

But using _your_ line of reasoning, all problems known 11 years ago would be fixed by now! :-) Everyone would start working on them as soon as someone figured out that there was a problem, no matter what kind. No war (problem known thousands of years ago), no famine (ditto), ...

Sorry, but people don't work that way. Did _you_ believe that Y2K could cause all kinds of severe problems the first time you learned about it? If so, you're one in a million. I first recognized a Y2K problem and understood how it applied to computers in general in 1979, but I didn't realize that it could have widespread societal impact until 1996. (Thousands of other computer nerds could say the same.)

>I believe several companies discovered it when they attempted to do long term planning in 1989/1990.

Of course they did. But they didn't recognize how prevalent and general Y2K problems were, and once they fixed the particular long-term planning software, their Y2K remediation ended there.

Certainly those companies didn't raise the alarm for the rest of us in any effective way back then, did they?

One guy placed a full-page ad explaining Y2K in Computerworld about 1985, but not much came of it.

The occasional Y2K problems that sprouted up more than a few years ago were effectively lost in the jungle of computer glitches.

AFAIK, there has not yet been any single dramatic publicly-visible Y2K problem causing a multimillion-dollar loss like the 1989 geomagnetic storms caused in electric transmission systems. Y2K damage has been much less apparent, generally, and spread out over a large number of isolated incidents. (The multimillion-dollar aluminum smelter damage in New Zealand and Australia on the 366th day of 1996 was caused by software that did not recognize leap years in general, not just 2000 in particular.)

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), November 09, 1998.

Tricia the C.,

Hmmm ... went on a little long there -- sorry if I come across as somewhat cross. Apologies.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), November 09, 1998.

I've not been especially worried about 'Solar Max 23' per se, but rather the environment in which it will be occurring. Yes, solar flares can and do cause problems with power grids, but normally, we get on the phone, call in cavalry, fix it and then go on about our business. Electric companies have a 'fair' understanding of what can go wrong and why and how to best respond (may take some time though). Even a severe geomagnetic storm on par with the recent Quebec example, though inconvenient and expensive, is survivable when it occurs as an isolated event. Power could and would be quickly restored to most areas and comparatively few reprecussions (other than the potentially large expense involved) would occur - i.e most hospitals have emergency generators, etc.

But late next year will most likely not be 'normal' and I am concerned that any outage, whether related to solar flares or somebody mowing down a utility pole, will cause people who haven't prepared for Y2K to panic and assume the worst.

That's another reason why at least some preparation makes sense. If the power goes out late next year for any reason, I'll have no reason to panic because I will be prepared for an outage of some duration.

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), November 09, 1998.

I was a ham operator in 1956 during one of the 11 year peaks. As I remember it, it was a benefit to radio communications in those days. That is; sporatic e skip and other methods were enhanced. I worked all states including alaska and hawaii as a novice on 40; pretty much unheard of at that point.

The only reason I was aware of the peak then was because of the hobby I was in but don't remember reports of major problems from the peaks that have occurred since then. Of course this is now a much more computerized society but satellites are doing less of a load now than they were during the last peaks in 1978 and 1989. The more dependable glass has taken over the load.

Granted there are effects, but as far as y2k is concerned, I just don't see it as a major factor.

-- Floyd Baker (fbaker@wzrd.com), November 10, 1998.