Where is the economy headed anyway??! Will the stock market continue to rally into next year?

Please let me know of any good forums and links on the economy.

thanks, ww

-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), October 21, 1998

Answers

With all the info available on global meltdown and y2k anyone who still has a significant sum of money in the market is either stupid or has balls the size of mt. everest...

-- a (a@a.a), October 21, 1998.

right down the gurgler!

-- ed (edrider007@aol.com), October 21, 1998.

Do a search for Princeton Economic Institute. They are good.

Get a subscription to The Economist, the British magazine. It's expensive, but it's weekly, and all about the world economy.

-- Anon. (anon@anon.com), October 22, 1998.

a a@a a person would need an awfully HUGE pair of shorts, don't you think? LOL Trixie

-- Trixie (Trixie@view.net), October 22, 1998.

Princeton Economics Institute article:

http://www.pei-intl.com/TOPICS/LEVERAGE.HTM

This article explains how the world economy is based on leverage, promises, and faith. Y2k will be a reality check.

-- Jon (jonmiles@pacbell.net), October 22, 1998.

If you compare the year 1928 and before to our era you will see very similar circumstances. The stock market was hitting record highs and economy was chugging along. Then came 1929...and the crash. If you look at the global sweep of things, the USA is next. Greenspan is already trying to prop things up. They know we are headed for a major depression. The United STates may be a safe haven for Japan stock for a few months and keep the stock market up...(only bigger fools buy now) but it will eventually go down the tubes again..fast!!! Watch for signs of Japan moving their stocks over and lookout!! That is a sure sign things will be rockin and rollin soon!!! It's just a matter of time. Y2K or not, we are in for hard times!! The trade deficit is widening...that means lay offs in the future for many!!!

-- deborah cunningham (dac@ccrtc.com), October 22, 1998.

WW, just watch when DJI hits 8650-8700 again. Just watch. As for The Economist, well, is easy to read, etc.,; it' s more complicated to follow-up on the things they say. I did it for 2 years, for reasons to long to expose here, and MY results; dismal record. Just like any other mainstream US magazine, to which I don't subscribe anymore. I feel subscribers have the same attention span as the general public, really short. Oh but it sounds goood to say " I reeead the Economist"... Sorry, just propaganda pamphlets.

-- Eli Talge (talge@usa.net), October 22, 1998.

We're seeing the same old fixes being tried on a whole new kind of world economy and they're not working. They wont work. Just like y2k, there are to many interdependent and interconnected problems. Plug one hole over there and you build up the pressure over here. Soon, we're going to pop.

All the big money manipulators in the world are in a panic. They're scared but they can't tell you. Why? Confidence. If you lose it, they lose their cushy life. Right now, their confidence is low. First Japan, then Brazil, South America. We'll feel the implications of their greed very soon. Just remember, they were never really concerned about YOUR well being. They were concerned about their positions. Especially their positions in the Worldwide Confidence Game.

Wish it were better but it isn't and it won

-- build a better tomorrow (get out!@we're_toast.com), October 22, 1998.

Ah, Wayne, if only we knew. It's hard for plain old peons to tell, but the best contemporary guess is that the plague of deflation which has flattened many of the world's economies is headed this way, fast. The problem grows out of decades of credit creation which has balooned economies out of shape the world over. Currently the Fed is feeding the credit craze by lowering interest rates. In the short term it seems to have worked. In the long term, who knows?

But since I'm a betting man, I'm betting that the immutable forces of economic nature can be counted on to blast this bubble just as they have all the others which easy money strategies have created throughout human history. I think you will eventually see the systematic failure of fiat money (issued by gov't decree, backed only by gov't promises) across the globe to include the US dollar. At that point a new reserve currency backed by something of real value AND convertible on demand will take the lead. Don't know what, or who will issue it. Rumor control has it that it might be the euro or the yen or something no one expects might emerge. It might even be a restored dollar, if we're lucky (anyone care to guess why 1- ounce gold eagles are marked "50 dollars"?) If we're not lucky you should start practicing your Mandarin Chinese language skills.

Your guess is as good as anyone's as to what the future holds. Best bet is to do things that let you sleep better at night. Diversify your holdings (water, food, fuel, a safe place to live, some cash, silver, gold etc), broaden your useful skills, and buckle your seat belt. It's going to be a wild ride... .

nemo...

-- nemo (nemo@deepsix.com), October 22, 1998.

There have been some interesting comments on this thread. However, I have to confess to not having much in depth knowledge of how the stocks and economy work. I try to read and ask questions as they come up so that i can form some educated opinions for myself rather than just based on someone elses say so. Anyway here goes for some basic questions that i would really appreciate if could be answered. ! One writer said that the US might be a safe haven for japan stocks for a few months and so would keep the market up, but that it would eventually go down the tubes again... Why? Not that i believe that we arent headed for depression at best (i do), however, if we are the only major market around, would that not serve as a more permanent haven for those in trouble? Why would this only last for a few months and then down the tubes? Also stated was to watch for signs of japan moving their stocks over and then look out. Assuming the probability of above, how would a non insider look for signs of them moving their stocks over? What signs are we looking for? Also on another post, the author stated to watch for the DJI hitting 8650-8700. Why this number? is it critical at this time, and what we then be watching for? On another note, the similarities between 1928 and 1998 are many, but the dissimilarities are also many. My father (who was in the banking industry, and also believed that japan would eventually be what brought us down...), used to say that in 1928, while the financial sector melted down, the rest of the country (meaning the Fed Govt) was actually in fairly decent shape. i.e., no deficit, no multi trillion dollar debt, etc. and still look at the mess it created. He was quite terrified at what might happen today if the same thing happened. Any way, sorry if the questions are basic, but i would really appreciate any clarifications or answers... Thanks

-- Damian Solorzano (dunno@nothing.com), October 22, 1998.

Correction: Year1999 is the reality check. 1/1/2000 is the turning point. Year2000 is the sequela.

-- Jon (jonmiles@pacbell.net), October 22, 1998.

Damian - Have to agree with your father. Fundamentals are nowhere near as strong now as they were in the late 20's. Expect deflation to hit bigtime 1Q1999 - it's already starting in certain industries.

Fundamental approach (and do it NOW): reduce/eliminate personal debt and get liquid. Too many people are trying to stay in stocks in hopes of recovering - fuhgedda bouddit. Bulls get rich; bears get rich; pigs get slaughtered. Stay in too much longer (while the "Plunge Control Team" pumps money in to help out the hedge funds and such) and you'll likely find dust where your nest-egg used to be. Do what the pros are doing: get to cash. And for Heaven's sake, use the cash to get prepared!

I'm not a financial adviser, but I play one on the Net... 8-}]

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), October 22, 1998.

I also feel that something real big is on the horizon. We are frantically working on getting out of debt yet I wonder... what is ones exposure to debt if it is unsecured: judgements or seizure of property? Would like to know.

Thought that I would include a portion of David Wilkersons newsletter.

AS I WRITE THIS LETTER TO YOU,(10-5-98) THE MARKET IS OFF 20% AND FALLING. THERE MAY BE A GREATER PLUNGE - OR THE MARKET WILL FLUCTUATE WILDLY FOR A SEASON. BUT I TELL YOU - WITH A BROKEN HEART- THE NEXT THREE MONTHS ARE GOING TO BE OMINOUS AND SHATTERING HERE IN AMERICA. A FULL BLOWN DEPRESSION IS SOON COMING TO THIS NATION AND THE WHOLE WORLD. IT CANNOT BE AVOIDED. AMERICA AND THE WORLD ARE NOW LEADERLESS. WE COULD BE CLOSER TO THE END THAN ANY OF US COULD IMAGINE. OUT OF THE CHAOS, THERE WILL COME A CRY FOR A POWERFUL LEADER TO RESTORE ORDER. (guess who?) HOW QUICKLY THINGS ARE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION. David Wilkerson 10-5-98

Anyhow, I also stand in awe that the general public has no desire to understand the dynamics of what is driving this current window of human history. We saw the denials and lack of coverage with Bill and Monica until there was no way to continue to hide the facts.

One story I read today indicated that a vast majority of Manufacturing Executives felt that American industy was not imperalled. No lack of consumer confidence there. Y2K is not even an issue of discussion.

Myself, I still am not sure that Y2K will immediatly and seriously impact on Jan. 1. I feel that the impact will be felt months later in the supply chain. Surely we (our leaders) cannot be that stupid unless you believe in a deeper Motive. (the new global leader?)

ww

-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), October 22, 1998.

What better way to introduce the New World Order and give the shattered world a new global leader. Next, we'll need an implanted ID chip to trade...

-- Extra Glum (oopsie@not.here), October 22, 1998.

Sneak- I really appreciate your answer. I am not, however in the stock market. I only have a small amount (< 1000.00) of personal debt that i am working to pay off. My questions weren't asked because of reasons of needing to know whether or not i should stay in or leave the market. Rather, out of curiosity in order to be able to follow the trends better and to make my own decisions on what is happening without feeling like i need to rely on the medias analysis, etc. Any answere re. the questions i asked would be most appreciated. I hope they're not too basic- or wish i could have stomached the thought of an economics class or 2 in college-or that i had paid more attention when my father talked about it!

-- Damian Solorzano (Dunno@nothin.com), October 23, 1998.

Sneak- I really appreciate your answer. I am not, however in the stock market. I only have a small amount (< 1000.00) of personal debt that i am working to pay off. My questions weren't asked because of reasons of needing to know whether or not i should stay in or leave the market. Rather, out of curiosity in order to be able to follow the trends better and to make my own decisions on what is happening without feeling like i need to rely on the medias analysis, etc. Any answere re. the questions i asked would be most appreciated. I hope they're not too basic- or wish i could have stomached the thought of an economics class or 2 in college-or that i had paid more attention when my father talked about it!

-- Damian Solorzano (Dunno@nothing.com), October 23, 1998.

Food for thought here., I would like to poll a few on this thread or anyone for that matter, I am trying like heck to pay down debt, but still have about 7,000 worth credit cards, (opps) we are going to come into a few bucks (3,000) soon, what would all of you do? Put money to pay off one card at 2000 and spend rest preparing or dont worry about the debt and prepare?

-- consumer alert (private@aol.com), October 23, 1998.

This is just my .02 worth, but this is what i would do. Maybe others can give better reasons for not doing this, so make your own decisions. I have very little debt, but have to work my a@s off to be able to prepare properly. I had about 3500 last year, and i sure as heck wish i had known to use it for something more useful. Anyway, to my way of thinking, if you are preparing for the worst like many of us here, it would seem practical to think in terms of survival strategy. Paying off debt is important, but debt won't kill you if TSHTF. The worst that could happen is a bad credit rating!!! Whereas, not being prepared if the above happens could. I'm not advocating NOT paying your bills to the best of your abilities, just thinking about the possibility of coming into this lump sum again, and what you would have wished to have done with it if it's bad next year. (Gee, i sure am glad that i paid that credit card down, 'course, now i can't eat, but... my credit rating is great!!!)

-- Damian Solorzano (oggy1@webtv.net), October 23, 1998.

And heres my question, what is the power of a lender if you or I fail to pay off our bills. If you have your house paid for can they force you to sell in court under current law. My understanding is that the worst that can happen under current law is a judgement can be applied to your house.

I wonder the same thing, I have a little money so should I pay off bills or buy stuff??

-- WAYNE WITCHER (WWITCHER@MVTEL.NET), October 23, 1998.

PLEASE, I DO NOT wish to imply that I wont be paying my bills at all. We currently have awesome credit, (thats how it got sooo easy to run up the dang things in the 1st place ) I do plan on paying, But, I just wonder what is MOST important when the money does come, pay off the debt (cant afford to pay it all unfortunately) or continue to make a lil above the minimum payment and buy stuff. All of your comments are most insightful.

-- consumer alert (private@aol.com), October 23, 1998.

I'd make the minimum payments which, of course,is your obligation. I'd prepare my fool head off with the rest of the cash. Screw the Shylocks. Let em wait.

-- Believer (OYe@littlefaith.com), October 23, 1998.

Consumer Alert, what is the amount of interest you are paying on the debt? For instance, I have a credit card with a 4.9% interest rate for 18 months. On that one, I would pay the minimum each month and prepare. But, on the other hand, if you are paying 18-21% per month, either pay that off, or switch it to a card that will give you a much lower interest rate.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 23, 1998.

Thanks all. Gayla, interest is 8.5 with bal of 5999 on one and 12.5 on the other at lil over 2,000. I did get a req for 4.9 thru mail but am leary as some of those say if your late they reserve right to jack up rate to 14% ouch....My thoughts are to continue the minimu if i get another offer i shall switch the high rate and perhaps even the lower interest rate since our credit is well enuf. But, I just want to be wise with the lil that shall be coming. I really enjoy all the thoughts thanks you guys and ladies.

-- consumer alert (private@aol.com), October 24, 1998.

Earlier this year, before Russia and Brazil starting having problems, conventional wisdom was we wouldn't have a recession in the US because "the fundamentals" were "solid." What the economists meant was that since we had growth with little inflation, there wasn't going to be a boom-then-bust type of situation.

What people don't know is that this is what happened in the late 1920's. After rising 3 1/2 percent during 1925, consumer prices *dropped* (slightly) during 1926, during 1927, and during 1928. In 1929 prices rose less than 1%.

There's major *deflation* going on in the world right now. I take this deflation not as a sign of a healthy economy, but as a sign of just how bad the world economy is right now.

If you think the stock market is unsettled now, just wait until January of 1999 when Y2K problems in bookkeeping and accounting programs start being noticed...

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), October 26, 1998.