I'm a y2k coordinator for our mfg plant and have yet to hear anything about the supply of natural gas. During normal power failures (lightening or ice storms) our gas fireplace will still work. However, if there is a massive failure of the grid, I would think that natural gas would also be subject to the failure. Does anybody have an Idea about this?

Personal comment: I've been seeing a disturbing trend in my own company as well as others. I'm labeling it as the chain of communication problem. Those people who are actually doing the work on evaluating and fixing y2k stuff, report to their boss that the status is "we're making progress". That manager reports to his boss that "Things are proceeding well". That manager (or PR person) reports publicly that "We are on schedule and will be finished in time". No one wants to give a negative report since our business politics seems to stigmatize and limit the careers of those who aren't a "can do" person.

I think we're in real trouble,

-- Laird J. Mott (laird.j.mott@monsanto.com), October 20, 1998

Answers

The supply of natural gas will depend on very many embedded chips functioning okay so that is indeed a concern. Also, no doubt much of their equipment needs electricity to operate so without power the supply would not be able to be distributed properly. Where I live, it gets extremely cold in the winter and without natural gas and electricity, we would have severe infrastructure problems. Most homes are heated by natural gas using forced air furnaces. If our power is out, then the furnace motor won't work and within 8 to 12 hours, most homes will be completely frozen. Not a pretty picture as it it usually minus 30 to minus 40 in early January.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), October 20, 1998.

I know of a neighbor who hired some electricians to set up a natural gas power generator where you have the option of flipping it over once the power goes out, or it kicks in automatically. You couldn't run the whole house, but you could run the electric furnace, a fridge, and maybe light a few rooms

It's nice, but I'll keep my wood stove in case natural gas >>and<< electricity fail.

-- Tim (pixmo@davenport.edu), October 20, 1998.

Check this reference:

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1615

This is a paper written by a progrmmer and systems analyst in the gas industry. His claims (of potential problems with PLCs) agrees with Craig's assessment.

I've also seen posts by people in the industry that indicate that the gas pipelines use gas powered generators for power in many instances, so that they may be insulated somewhat from power outages. On the other hand a representative of the AGA, testfying before a congressional subcommittee also claimed that gas was heavily reliant on electricity. Don't know if that's the truth or if he was trying to cover up in advance. I have come away with the impression that local operations might be able to survive if the power goes out, buit that the overall operation, from well to user, may require power.

Your comments about the chain of command -- and increasingly more positive spin as reporting goes up the line -- don't surprise me.

I was lucky to have worked in a company where even upper management weren't too far removed from the design department to appreciate our problems. On one critical job the vice president moved his reporting function to a small room just outside our radar and computer area. He got reports weekly.....just him, though, and not a bunch of other clowns to interrupt, and we didn't have to take a lot of time dressing up the reports: we just walked in as we came off or went on shift, spent 5 minutes with him, and the most common question he asked was, "What can I do to help you?"

We made schedule, but that man was a rarity.

Good luck to you, Laird. Thanks for the report.

-- rocky (rknolls@hotmail.com), October 20, 1998.

In the early 80's I worked on a lot of the software for the xxx Corp which is a holding company for most of the natural gas transmission lines from the Gulf of Mexico. The lines transmitted gas as far north as Minnesota and as far East as Pittsburgh. At least at that time those lines were totally dependent on large electric powered compressors and on a complex communications setup (similiar to SCADA/EMS). Loss either would shut down a line. My guess is that large scale electric or comm loss would still shut down these long distance transmission lines. Local distribution would probably be ok for a short while (hours-days?) then fail as local storage was used up.

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), October 20, 1998.

R.D., can't help but wonder if you're talking about our friend ENRON? If so, you may know my husband. He worked for them in the 80's.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), October 20, 1998.

R.D. is right on. The main pipes are recharged by gas powered pumps, but are the pumps logic controled? What about wells? Do they have chips, too? Don't bet on gas for long term heat. If there are brown outs go with a wall mounted gas heaters. No venting, no electric required. I went with a woodstove and three cords of wood. No more heat worries.

-- Bill (bill@microsoft.com), October 21, 1998.