Have we heard anything about the oil and gas industry? I've heard about the embedded chips in oil rigs being a potential problem but nothing else. Is this really a problem for them? What about distribution? Can we expect that the trucking industry will be ok? Can we expect oil and gas to be available for our cars and homes?

-- audrey Irvine (aai@adelphia.net), October 06, 1998

Answers

I'm gettin gvery mixed answers, depending on the different parts of the industry: research, new drilling, existing well, gas or oil, onshore or offshore, shipping, refining, storing, pumping, etc.

Drilling seems very threatened if the blowout sensors and controllers are effected, the rest of the rig is dependednt on power (some of it locally generated) and transportation. But then again, you don't need new wells in a 3-4 month period.

Most the existing wells are pumped, not free flowing (except natural gas = all underground pressure, except for secondary and tertiary recovery efforts).

Shipping gas requires BIG gas turbines to pump and regulation of pressures. Effect = ???? Lack of control, bad regulation, bad flow, no flow, ???? seem likely, but I'm guessing. Natural gas can't be stored in reasonable quantities, so what is at the well head, and what can be distributed = what you can burn, if your furnace has power and fans. Industrial users = big unknown. Many more control and coordination problems.

Oil must be pumped = requires power nationally to move it nationally. Power and good controllers requierd for refineries, else fire and flames and explosions, or complete shutdown. Also, lots of process control and analysis software, not just embedded chips are used.

After refinery, same distribution and inventory and shipping problems as food = gasoline will blow up, rather than spoil like milk, fruit, vegatbable or breads. Guess its better to be next to a broken down food truck than a broken down gasoline tanker.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 06, 1998.

Audrey:

I got the following response when I posted a question about NG on the EUY2K forum. I've removed the sender's name and email address.

"Natural gas transmission is similar to power transmission, but not as critical as power in terms of real-time response. The major Y2k concern for Gas system is with Pipeline SCADA systems and their associated application functions. Every specific length of a pipeline is monitored by microprocessor based Remote Terminal Units which transmits and receives digital data including date/ time from a Central Control Center. Y2k remediation is similar to that of electric transmission SCADA systems. Hence the same risk factors apply to Gas systems also. As far as an utility's priority is concerned, a gas pipeline that feeds a cogeneration plant takes higher precedence than household supply."

Judge it's accuracy for yourself.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), October 07, 1998.

Thank you Mike = I'm not comfortable about natural gas distribution until they get a reasonable national test completed. Command, control, links, monitoring (no monitors = no measurement of flow = no meters = no billing = no money = no gas distributed. They could go for a little bit at "free" gas in an emergency, but no company could spend a month's income just sending free gas down the line.

And I'd rather that test not be scheduled on Jan 1, 2000.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 07, 1998.

Robert,

your last point about not being able to pump without metering is an example of not thinking about how life will change in a crisis.

The end-point meters are mechanical (every one I've seen is, because otherwise Mr. Dishonest would be busy finding ways to cause them to reset to zero, and succeeding!) So, the problem is that different gas suppliers are supposed to compete on price. Enter a crisis, who cares about the last percent? Allow a temporary cartel charging one price (and it's probably better higher, that'll cut back demand). Or nationalize the whole show (again hopefully only for the duration of the emergency). The only thing that REALLY matters is that gas can still be produced and pumped (and eventually paid for, once those endpoint meters get read and the banking and billing systems get fixed).

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), October 07, 1998.

True, for those meters at the final customer site (homeowner & business).

I was thinking about, but did not indicate properly, the big meters between gas companies and pipelines, pipeline to pipeline, gas line and city utility, and gas well and distribution pipeline.

Those are highly digital (in the reporting and surveying and recording side, and somewhat digital in the meter/recorder itself), and their "downstream" processors (inside the companies and networks) are of course all digital (i.e. potentially non-Y2K compliant) because they are highly date-time driven.

Fixable? Of course. But it requires an awareness that they must be fixed. Else bancruptcy or losses (among the suppliers) that contributes to longer term troubles.

End user meters are analog, and can be read at the distributor's convenience. Billing, etc. and accounts recevieable follow as potential troublespots.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 07, 1998.

Here's another angle: Lots of oil comes from dry, deserty land around the Persian Gulf, right? Well, much of their drinking water nowadays is produced by desalination plants that are computer-controlled. A few months ago I read a letter from a fellow in Bahrain pointing out that those plants were vulnerable to Y2K problems, and that if they stopped producing water, that could easily lead to a reduction in oil production by thirsty people. (When I can find the letter, I'll post the URL. It was referenced in an article on the Westergaard Year 2000 site.)

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), October 12, 1998.

Spam: Is this the URL you were mentioning? http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Special/Opinion/Readers/asumu9824.htm

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), October 12, 1998.

Tim,

Thank you!

Yes, that is exactly the URL I had in mind: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Special/Opinion/Readers/asumu9824.htm

My apologies to forum readers for writing simply "Bahrain" where I should have written "one of the Persian Gulf countries (perhaps Bahrain, but I don't remember for sure)". (The psych tests keep saying I'm perfectionistic, so I'm trying to counteract this trait in order to achieve a more balanced personality ... ... :-1 )

Anyway, FWIW the letter at that URL is really from a fellow in Japan, writing in response to another letter from United Arab Emirates about the desalination issue.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), October 13, 1998.

Don't worry about the psych test, I failed mine too after I handed in the answer sheet late. )Besides, the teacher took 5 more points off for bad spelling and a poor gramma'. But grandpa liked her anyway.) 8<)

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 13, 1998.