I have heard repeatedly that we could have blackouts or brownouts if Y2K troubles hit the electric utilities. Most of the conversation has centered around blackouts, but brownouts present a totally different set of problems. If I understand the use of the term "brownout" this means a reduction in voltage. Motors do not like low voltage. So brownouts pose a threat to equipment which is, in a way, worse than a blackout. If motors in furnaces, compressors in refrigeration units, and such are run at low voltage for too long, they overheat and burn out. So even if the power problem gets straightened out, the damage is done. This means people could end up "out in the cold" if their furnace blower motor burns out. Food will spoil in freezers and refrigerators if the compressors get fried. If the lights dim, but don't go out, I'll probably shut off the furnace, and switch to emergency heat.

Does anyone have any information specifically related to the possibilities of brownouts as opposed to blackouts? I realize that this kind of info probably won't be coming from the power companies.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 27, 1998

Answers

I just got through scimming the October 6th edition of PC Magazine. The cover says in large letters,"THE YEAR 2000 CRISIS". Most of the articles seemed to be optimistic("yes, there is a problem, but if we work real hard, and if you buy all these soft-ware packages you will be just fine") I was pretty disgusted, but then the last article talked about how far behind utilities were. It totally baffles me how people can brag that their all ready, then say that the utility companies, and nuclear power plants wont be. ANYWAY, to answer your question,(I hope) here is a chilling quote at the end of the article: "What are we going to do? No one knows. Many power-industry experts admit privately that they think large-scale and extended power outages, beginning in January,2000, are inevitable.." Jim Seymour PG. 160 article called MY BIGGEST WORRY. Did you get that? LARGE-SCALE AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ARE INEVITABLE!!!!

-- madeline (runner@bcpl.net), September 27, 1998.

madeline:

I'm very well aware of the chances for blackouts. The difference is that after a blackout, (when power is restored) you just turn everything back on. After a brownout (when the voltage is back to normal) you may have to repair damaged equipment. This really is a different problem altogether.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 27, 1998.

I cant answer your brown out question obviously, but if we loose all our power(blackout) and it is restored and everyone turns their stuff on won't the same thing occur(damage to equipment)?

-- madeline (runner@bcpl.net), September 27, 1998.

Bennett said this last week:

"When Benjamin Disraeli said, "Finality is not the language of politics" in 1859, he clearly hadn't heard of the Y2K problem. Yesterday Sen. Robert Bennett, chairman of the Senate Y2K committee, darkly predicted that on January 1, 2000, "I expect brownouts in spite of the very best efforts." "We have to be prepared for the very real possibility of some kind of emergency legislation and emergency crew put together in the first quarter of 1999 to look at this," the Utah Republican told a luncheon audience at a Discovery Institute conference in Washington, D.C. The Senate has already earmarked a $3.2 billion emergency Y2K slush fund for the 1999 fiscal year ending October 1999. Bennett said that one goal of the Senate Y2K committee is to tell Americans that there's no need to panic -- potential brownouts and blackouts nothwithstanding. "We can go and say this is going to work. We can say keep your money in the stock market. The stock market is going to work," said Bennett, a longtime member of the Senate Banking Committee. "That's one of the major functions can fulfill in this committee. While Bennett didn't mention the possibility of martial law, he's brought it up before, and he's clearly thinking about it. "What happens if the computers in Los Angeles county don't work and no welfare checks go out?" he asked." Link: http://cgi.pathfinder.com/netly/article/0,2334,14643,00.html

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), September 27, 1998.

Hi Madeline,

Little bit of a difference in terms here means a big difference in effects on electronics.

A blackout, of course = no power at all. (Volts = 0) So the equipment obviously trips off and stops. Some, depending on how the switch works, will try to restart when power is restored. Others (like some of my alarm clocks and my microwave at home) come back on but need to have the clock reset. Blackouts can be short, or long, but typically they begin rapidly, and generally (keep your fingers crossed) don't physically harm the elctronics because the unit is "off"

A brownout happens when either voltage or frequency control is lost = volts may drop to 95 from the usual 115-118 volts at your house. Frequency is less likely to drop radically, but can go (up or down) away from the required 60 Hertz by a little bit - enough to matter.

When this happens, the elctronics don't trip, but try to keep running. (Light bulbs, for example, will dim, but still work. An air conditioner or heater fan will turn slower and run much hotter.) Motors, fans, elevator, industrial eqpt, altenators, and other rotating equipment lose speed and position control, and consumer electronics (even those with rectifiers to DC) lose their regulated output. But the stupid machines don't turn off by themselves, and most are kept in service by well-meaning people, and so may burn up themselves or their controllers.

Given the choice, I'd much rather have a clean blackout rather than a long brownout.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 01, 1998.