I sent an email to our power company asking for information on how they were progressing with their Y2K remediation efforts. I made it clear that I wanted something more than the standard lawyer approved boilerplate information. Well I received a reply by mail signed by the president himself with some information. Although it was a bit more detailed than the basic form letter, there wasn't anything that gave me any comfort. Put it this way, I bought a generator this week. I've emailed back to him requesting answers to some pretty straightforward questions including asking about what their research shows about the possibility of 'time dilation' affecting their computers and/or embedded chips. I'm eager to see what the response if any will be. However I'll keep at it until I get some proper answers. With our January temperatures averaging minus 20 during the day and minus 30 at night (often we get -40 or colder) any power outage of more than a few hours will cause grievous problems including seriously damaging most homes and businesses as well as a risk of loss of life to those that didn't get into the few places that have emergency generators that could keep the furnaces working. We have already experienced occassions where certain residential areas were taken off of the grid for short periods because demand for power exceeded the supply.

Unfortunately, I feel that even with the exposure Y2K will undoubtedly get, it is likely that 70 to 80% of all residences will not have a generator in time. There are perhaps about 10 to 15% of homes that have another source of heat such as a woodstove, however they likely would not throw off enough heat to stop the pipes from freezing in those temperatures.

El nino, come back!!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 23, 1998

Answers

Craig, I was just wondering...where did you buy your generator, how much was it, what kind or brand is it, what size and how much of an area will it work in. What about ventilation? Don't you have to vent it somewhere. Also, it uses gasoline, right? How much do you plan on storing and where will you need to keep it stored? Sorry for all the questions, but I told hubby that I would do some checking up on generators since he does not have the time right now. Maybe I can let him read your post and would appreciate any updates from any of you all on the forum, so that I can make a wise choice and my hubby will feel better about getting one since they are not cheap. It gets so cold here and I have thought about pipes freezing not to mention ME, frozen in time! Thanks, Blondie

-- Blondie Marie (Blondie@future.net), September 23, 1998.

P.S. I just got back from the store and bought 6 gallon jugs of Harmony Brook osmosis water...how long will that keep stored just the way it is? All the empty jugs were gone, and I was glad I brought in my own. Usually don't see that. Blondie

-- Blondie Marie (Blondie@future.net), September 23, 1998.

Seems to me that if you're expecting the power to be off for more than a week or two, which seems to be the consensus here, you should plan on getting along without electricity. Where are you going to store all that gasoline? Unless you're planning on putting in an underground tank, it's very dangerous to keep around. Don't even think about keeping it indoors, and outdoors it's vulnerable to theft and vandalism.

-- Ned (entaylor@cloudnet.com), September 23, 1998.

Blondie, the plastic jugs of spring water I just bought at Wal-Mart have an expiration date of 8-31-2000. I am storing 24 gallons now, (Georges is looking bad!!), and will store lots more in larger containers late in 1999.

-- Gayla Dunbar (privacy@please.com), September 23, 1998.

I don't really think there is a consensus for if or how long the power will be out for. It's as simple as hedging ones bets. Also, the power could be out for 3 days, on for a week, out for 4 more days etc. so it's impossible to predict with any accuracy. Also, the power could be out but a gas station with a generator could continue to sell gasoline during a period of a power outage. Certainly, gasoline stored incorrectly could be dangerous, but it's not like there are a lot of alternatives. When it's 40 below zero with very few hours of daylight, a generator is a must. Also, gasoline in a locked shed is probably fairly safe. Those that don't have power to their homes will be tucked away in a shelter somewhere, or else left town. The only way they would remain in their own homes is if they had previously prepared by having their own alternate source of power.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 23, 1998.

Blondie..... I don't know what 'Harmony Brook' water is, but if you're talking about those 'fill your own jug' machines, you'd be better off filling from your own tap. I once saw a service man servicing one of those machines, and you can't imagine the filth and molds that were inside the plastic fill lines, not to mention the build-up inside the filter cartridges. Water filters make ideal incubators for pathogens of every sort, so if you plan to use a filtration system be sure to clean, disinfect, or replace it much more often than advertised. Example: if useful life of a filter cartridge is said to be 200 gallons, divide the estimated daily use gallons of drinking water into 200, and this gives you the max. number of days before you need to change the filter. However, to be safe, replace it in half the time, and if you go away for several days, remove the cartridge and store in the refrigerator to slow down the growth of bacteria, molds, and algae.

There has been much information published on the possible dangers of off-the-shelf bottled drinking water. Although most bottled water companies are reputable, there are some that fill their so-called 'alpine spring water' jugs right out of city water taps. Also, who knows how clean the bottling plant is, or if the jugs have been sterilized or not, or if extraneous material or creepy critters were in the jugs prior to capping? If your water is bad at home, i.e. bad taste, possibly contaminated, etc., save your money and fill your jugs at a neighbors tap or a public water source, not at a potentially dirty machine.

-- Roy Cave (roy@techcomm.net), September 23, 1998.

I notice that most people are concerned about loss in power which I think is the easiest thing to get a long without regarding y2k. I think I'm more concerned with problems regarding sewage and especially water treatment facilities. Also, because I live in the L.A. basin, I am concerned about the facilities that bring water into the area. I know the problem with the water in Australia was extreme and the power never went off there. The power can be on and we can still suffer from undrinkable water supplies or a disruption in the supply itself. If there is a loss in power I think I am more concerned with looting and civil unrest. Panic is a powerful e

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), September 23, 1998.

Michael:

Electricity is a major concern for those of us who live in the north, particularly our Canadian friends. Power outages here could kill people (directly). You're right about the water, but unlike electric power, water is easy to stockpile. Most people in smaller communities could probably get water from natural sources if reserves ran out. Blackouts really increase the possibility of looting and mayhem. (In L.A. and other large cities it certainly wouldn't take long to start.) I think most of us are so concerned about electricity because it's the keystone. Without it there will be no heat, no light, no water filtration, no phones, few if any open stores, no gas stations...

Got to agree with you about the sewage. Burying waste would help matters, but digging a hole in January up here is virtually impossible. You can't just dump human waste in the streets and not expect to have trouble. London in the 1800's is a good example.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 24, 1998.

Power = water pressure = water distribution = distribution control + control sensing.

Losing power (to several sections of a service area like a city or county water system) means they lose water pressure to "refill" the from underground pumps, surface suction and filtration, aboveground tanks and surge suppression systems. (The large tanks you actually see don't last very long, they really are for pressure regulation, not supply for long periods of time.)

Once pressure is lost (lowered too far, if not gone entirely) then you face several days of flushing and sampling to get clean water back in the system. Ground water "leaks" back into the water suply piping very quickly since the piipes in most systems are in terrible shape. So even having pressure doesn't mean you can drink the water safely.

Water treatment is seldom manual, probably partially able to be regulated manually, but again up and down surges are very tricky. large changes are biggest potential for catastrophic leaks, busted pipes, busted systems.

Sewage? Much is by gravity, so look out below if pumps and filters and treatment systems go out. Backflow into low-lying houses and business has often happened too during floods. Can't tell all the time though whether any given "something" would fail open or fail shut.

But "failure" is failure - it means it ain't working right.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 24, 1998.

To Michael,

Actually Michael, putting human waste on the street is one of the few advantages of our severely cold climate. When the temperature stays below the freezing mark until usually early to mid March, it buys you some time to dispose of the waste. As a matter of fact, not that many years ago when a person died in the middle of winter, they would store the dead body on a platform high in a tree until the ground had thawed enough to be able to dig a hole. The reason for the platform was to keep wild animals away from the body.

I suppose another advantage of extremely cold temperatures is that it is simply too dang cold to riot!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 24, 1998.

To Blondie,

The generator I got is a 5000/6250 watt with a 10h.p.Briggs & Stratton engine. It runs on gasoline. It was one that the store only knew existed when they searched their non-compliant inventory system and found they had this one hidden away in the back warehouse somewhere. It was less expensive than some of the smaller models. It cost $900.00 Canadian which converts to about $3.85US. No, actually that's about $600.00US. I know from shopping around that some of the HONDA models with similiar specifications run about $2200 Canadian or $1500US. I figure there is reasonable chance that gas will still be available even if the power is out. If necessary it can be siphoned plus some of the gas stations will have generators. There's only so much gas that can safely be stored in a residential area.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), September 24, 1998.

Craig:

Spring of 2000 could be a real mess!

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 24, 1998.

Craig:

Any chance you could post the letter you got from the utility? I, for one, would be very interested in seeing it.

I haven't bought a generator yet, but that is definitely the next major purchase, and it will happen before '99. I'm checking out some models now.

-- Steve Hartsman (hartsman@ticon.net), September 28, 1998.

I like the idea of using a Brigg&Straton engine for a generator: it would seem to be easier to fix since it would be similar to the smaller (?) B&S engines used on millions of lawn equipment tools.

That is, getting a B&S driven generator rather than a Honda or Coleman or no-name Kmart special brand.

Any other opinions?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 28, 1998.

Robert, the two Coleman gennies I've seen both have Briggs & Stratton engines in them.

Tecumseh is another common engine brand, less common than B&S but you shouldn't have trouble finding parts for them, either.

Y'know, we're probably little more than an hour's drive apart. Maybe we could plan a get-together/chat/whatever at a "neutral site" some time?

-- Larry Kollar (Dawsonville, GA) (lekollar@nyx.net), September 28, 1998.

Briggs + Stratton vs Honda

Winner- Honda, IMHO, from using both BS (notice no +) and Honda motors myself. No contesto. El Honda is muy durable, muy longo lastino. Eet habeen bery bery goo to me. An doan worry abou parts, you doan need no stinkin' parts, eet (motor) will oulast any amoun of gas you can store. Jus get you soam spar plucks, an soam oil, an cleen de air feelter once een a while.

CAVEAT- for the short term if all you can afford is a cheapie, skip Coleman, the generator housings are made of PLASTIC for cryin' out loud.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 28, 1998.

I forgot to mention... my generator is a Kawasaki.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), September 28, 1998.

When checking out generators, don't forget Onan. I'm told they are very good. Onan is also a very common generator used in motor homes. A 6KW will run you about $2,000. A good transfer switch (10 breaker pre-wired) about $650 and a conversion kit from gas to propane about $400. Comments??

-- Dave Harris (HarrisCrew@aol.com), September 30, 1998.