There is so much conflicting info re the Power Grid that I'm totally in limbo. I try to be open minded, but I honestly don't know what to believe. I know very little on the subject, so I tend to defer to the so-called "experts", but even they say conflicting things...

I understand that few in the industry will publicly state the risk of major, widespread, rolling blackouts. Yet that is the vision I keep having as I lie awake late at night. If the grid stays up, I believe there will still be major problems, but Western Civilization will limp forward. Without the grid for any period extending beyond 30 days, it's hell on earth and I will regret not "bugging out".

I don't expect to get any definitive answers here. No one truly KNOWS, of course, what will happen. I'm also not interested in opinions based on anything but the facts. Much of the information I've been digesting of late seems to point towards the grid surviving with some minor problems, which helps me sleep a little easier. Am I grasping at straws?

-- Steve Hartsman (hartsman@ticon.net), September 21, 1998

Answers

Personally, I'd veer towards the grid surviving but with major problems. Of course, nobody knows...

One thing to bear in mind; there is an established priority structure for power supply. At one extreme are essentials like water and sewage pumps, hospitals, and other vital infrastructure. At the other end is residential supply. Major, or even minor, problems, may mean no power to some householders. If 90% of them still have power ( minor problems) that's little consolation if you are in the 10% without. Especialy if the 10% has large granularity (ie your whole town or city is cut off). Especially little consolation if you live in a cold part of the world and have made no preparations even for short-term troubles.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), September 21, 1998.

It seems likely to me that the grid will survive the initial impact, or at least, come on again fairly quickly. However, what happens when the domino effect hits? If the nukes are out, and the power plants that use natural gas or oil go out, the coal plants seem like the best bet. And even they are threatened by an oil shortage - transportation doesn't use coal! I guess what I'm saying is that even if we survive the initial hit of y2k, it can still come to TEOTWAWKI.

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), September 21, 1998.

You are in good company worrying about the grid. It is the number one question. If it stays up (or is restored < 30 days) then we muddle onward even if its in a Depression. If it goes down,I hope you like living a Stephen King scenario. I have multiple advanced science degrees and, after as much research as I can do, my conclusion is this. Absolutely no one knows. The electrical engineers don't know, the comp sci/embedded systems guys don't know, the SCADA designers don't know,and for sure, the administrative weenies of the utilities don't know. When you think about it, the realization that no one is at the driver's wheel is truly frightening. Some utilities are in better shape than others. If you live in a small community that has a small dedicated, old power plant you are probably better off than being in a huge urban environment dependent on multiple plants. The other huge factor is telecommunications. The regional grids are absolutely dependent on various comm links. Some utilities have dedicated microwave facilities with UPS backup and some don't. If a given grid loses communications then it will go down EVEN IF the entire power generation side is 100% Y2K compliant. My guesstimate is that at least one of the five (depending on how you count Canada and Mexico) continental grids will go down hard and there will be severe problems in others. A huge question mark is the nukes. If they are allowed up by the NRC and they stay up on rollover then the Northeast should be okay. Nukes supply 30% - 40% of power in this region. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. You are your own "expert".

-- R. D..Herring (drherr@erols.com), September 21, 1998.

One thing is for sure: Even if by some miracle the grid stays up and we are able to muddle through -- or even if by some magic Y2K turns out to be just a minor bump in the road -- I think all of us who have seriously thought about this will never quite feel as confident and complacent in the things that we used to take for granted, such as electric power. I think that Y2K has forced many of us to appreciate just how marvelous -- and fragile -- our technology is.

-- Joe (shar@pei.com), September 21, 1998.

Yes, those are all things to be concerned about, now add de-regulation and solar flares to the mix, and shake well.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), September 21, 1998.

Steve, I seem to recall you live in Wisconsin. Why don't you give your power company a call and ask a few questions. If you are an Alliant Power customer, give them a call. They have Y2K updates in every bill. I played dumb with Madison Gas and Electric and got a lot of information. If you act like a know-it-all, they get defensive. The key is to play ignorant so they can get condescending and start blathering. These folks who think they have power love to look down on us little folks. I could not believe some of the info I got from MG&E. It's actually kind of fun! Here's hoping the lights stay on!

-- Dave (dave22@concentric.net), September 21, 1998.

And when the satelites get wiped out by the meteor shower(s) this fall, we'll get a preview of how inter-reliant things are.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 21, 1998.

You must be expecting an incredibly dense meteor shower.

-- Mike (gartner@execpc.com), September 22, 1998.

Mike

A response will be under "Meteors, Leonids"

cr

-- Chuck a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), September 22, 1998.

Newbie here. We live in a very small (less than 3000) rural town in southern Minn. Our power comes from Interstate. I tend to think they buy their electricity from NSP which has a major nuclear plant about 60 miles away. We have an ace in the hole, however. We have a very large Seneca/Green Giant cannery/processing plant right in town that has not only its own electricity plant but its own high-capacity water supply. I think there is an agreement with the city to provide both in the event of catastrophic loss. (One can only hope)

-- Liz pavek (lizpav@frontiernet.net), September 27, 1998.