Not a question, but a comment. In addition to the doom and gloom on Y2K (warrented I think), there's an impending crisis in the form of an oil shortage. It's fairly well documented (http://dieoff.org) that world-wide oil production will peak in the next ten years, with a gradual reduction in production, until the point where getting a barrel of oil from the ground takes a barrel of oil (oil, as with all finite resources, is becoming more expensive to "produce" over time, as the easiest-to-obtain resource is used first).

So, assuming Y2K doesn't get us first, expect some massive changes in the next ten to twenty years. Our entire world economy is driven by the availability of cheap, free-flowing oil. It's unlikely that present world popoulation could be sustained with other forms of energy, most of which take more energy than they produce (hydrogen, ethanol, etc.)

Sigh - cities are going to be bad places to live...

-- Oliver Seiler (oseiler@acm.org), July 08, 1998

Answers

I don't know how old you are, but we had an oil crisis in the early 80s and it caused a recession. At that time and since then a lot of inventors have come up with plans for solar powered houses. These inventions are normally bought up by oil companies who fear their monopoly might be lost. Capitalism can be an ugly thing. Nonetheless, some people have succeeded in building solar-powered homes.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), July 08, 1998.

The oil crisis could come much sooner than we think. In speaking before the Senate Y2K committee today, John Westergaard warned that he felt sure that Sadaam Hussein would take advantage of the computer chaos and attack Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in Jan 2000. As if we don't have enough to worry about.... Regards, Kitty in VA

-- Kitty Felton (kittyfelton@webtv.net), July 08, 1998.

Oliver,

Skyrocketing oil prices wouldn't do much for country life either. Going 12 miles in a horse and buggy because you can't afford the gas wouldn't be fun.

Amy, solar homes died because they were impractical in a 'throw away' world. The cost of an energy sufficient home, using renewable energy techniques is high in most parts of our country. We haven't been willing to pay the price. Most of us live in homes for a relatively short period of time. Why, we ask, would we want to pay up front for a system that has a 30 year pay back.......when we'll move in 5 years?

Greedy corporations didn't 'buy up' plans. People just weren't interested. Must we always fix blame?

-- Rocky Knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), July 09, 1998.

Rocky - That is interesting. Someone said previously that they are building a Solar powered energy plant next to the Pentagon. I had thought that in times of crisis, it would be good to have shelters to go to. Perhaps an investment could be made in our schools to build solar powered energy source. We may be here and gone in five years, but the school is going to stick around. The idea being of course that the school could be the shelter. Also just for general use, the school wouldn't have to pay electric bills. Just something to think about.

-- Amy Leone (aleone@amp.com), July 09, 1998.

Oils been on the way out since Nixon. There just getting all they can out of it will they can. Natural gas electric will be powering cars. theres a lot of it going on right now.energy eff homes can cut energy use 60% or better.If oil stoped today it would take about a year for the USA to get back in step.These product are here today and being used everyday.

-- Steve M (ltyw90a@prodigy.com), July 09, 1998.

Amy,

Maybe when we come out of the chaos associated with y2k people will be willing to pay for things like that. I like the idea of schools being more self sufficient, both from an operating standpoint and as a community shelter ---- saw a plan for a school in England that used extensive solar heat, which was a surprise, since I hadn't thought their environment would support much solar.

-- Rocky Knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), July 10, 1998.

Rocky, the "12 miles in a horse & buggy" rings *my* bell. I live about 10 miles from town, 5 miles from the nearest gas stations, etc.

Anyway, now is the time for those who don't want to deal with a horse & buggy to get a small motorcycle -- specifically, a dual-purpose (street-legal dirt bike). Take the Motorcycle Safety Foundation's "Rider Skills & Safety" course (see http://www.msf-usa.org/); most states will issue you a license upon passing this course.

Then practice. Ride to work as often as possible. Also spend some time riding off-road. If TSHTF, and you have to go somewhere after things settle down, you'll be able to get there.

No, I don't sell motorcycles, I just ride 'em.

-- Larry Kollar (lekollar@nyx.net), July 10, 1998.

Oliver: The scenario you refer to is called the Hubbert Curve, named after oil engineer King Hubbert, who correctly predicted back in the mid-1950s that the US oil production would peak in 1972 and then go into decline. As most Boomers will recall, the Arabs precipitated the oil/energy crisis in 1973, during the last Arab-Israeli war, when American oil imports rose to more than half of our total consumption. Hubbert is dead, but modern oil analysts have used his formula to predict that global oil production will peak around 2000-2010. I came across the Webpage last fall and thought it was another millennial apocalypse fad, but the March 1998 Scientific American devoted an entire and very serious article to Hubbert's predictions. Very thought-provoking and worth looking up at the local library and on the Web. Even if y2k turns out to be a minor blip (hope, hope), the next decade could well bring a new energy crisis that would make the 1970s look like a backyard barbecue.

-- J.D. Clark (yankeejdc@aol.com), July 15, 1998.