I'm in the process of attempting to evaluate my local electric utility's (Commonwealth Edison's) ability to reliably generate and deliver electricity post-00. I'm significantly helped in this by the fact that my wife worked in IT/IT for for ComEd for about a decade and still has friends "inside."

One of these is an IS/IT professional associated with disaster recovery. I'm therefore planning to turn to him for specific information -- off the record, of course.

I'm a longtime network/systems administrator myself, so I have a good grounding in the issue generally. What I lack is the specifics of what to ask. By that, I mean what components in particular are at risk in terms of embedded systems/hardware/software/control applications.

What I'd really like are a checklist of common generation/delivery systems, applications, and equipment that could be faulty. I would then pass this on to my wife's friend and ask him where ComEd stands with respect to it.

What I'm trying to avoid with this approach is two things:

1. Being given the standard company line of, "Don't worry, we'll make it." I want to know if they're not, frankly.

2. If this acquaintance isn't familiar with the issue, put a list of possible problems in front of him in a knowledgable way to get his attention. I.e., use his industry jargon to get him to take notice.

In short, I want to look like I have a grasp of what the hell I'm talking about so I can't be dismissed out of hand.

Unfortunately, two years isn't enough time to learn the industry well enough to even ask the right questions.

Is there a listing available of the kind that I'm looking for? If not, can anyone provide me with components and uses so that I can make one?

Understand that I really need this information for my own contingency planning. My wife has heretofore been openly hostile about Y2K and is beginning to take it seriously. However, she tends toward the attitude of, "It can't happen to me." I would like to be in a position to present her with concrete evidence, from a source that she trusts, as to precisely where our local power company stands.

I would appreciate any assistance or pointers to assistance which you can give me.

"John Smith"

-- "John Smith" (pobox42@hotmail.com), April 29, 1998

Answers

SWEB, a UK utilities firm has posted a listing of all the things they are examining for y2k.

reach them at:

http://www.swebuk.com/docs/millen4.htm

-- DeAlton Lewis (omb00782@mail.wvnet.edu), April 30, 1998.

I work as an electrical engineer, and I believe that the electric utilities are far less likely to experience serious, long term effects from the Y2K problem than are some other organizations. This does not mean that there will be no problem at all, but that in all probablility there will be no widespread problem for a lengthy period. An excellent discussion of this subject can be found at this address:

http://www.albany.net/~dmills/fallback/fintro.htm

-- David Auslander (dauslander@usa.net), April 30, 1998.

David:

Two things:

1. Assuming electric utilities will be relatively stable, they don't operate in a vacuum. I've not read the link you suggested as of yet, so I'll defer judgemnet. If I understand correctly, however, the Federal NRC will have little choice but to order the majority of nuclear reactors shut down prior to 1/1/00 due to non-compliance -- compliance which is impossible due to lack of time to conduct feasibility studies for the NRC.

   With nuclear reactors down, will fossil reactors be able to take up the slack? That's something like more electricity needed to be generated -- assuming the fossil plants are all compliant. If they're not, what effect will that have? 20% gone off the top by nuclear plants, another unknown percentage by non-functional or semi-functional fossil plants?

2. More than the Y2K problems, I'm intruiged by your attitude. You're suggesting that there might be brownouts or blackouts, but that somehow this is a trivial problem.

   I'd suggest that far from being trivial, it's monumental. The electric utility which serves northern Illinois (virtually a branch of the state government) is constantly being sued by consumer groups for nothing more than outage caused by an act of God.

   Every time an area loses power, we're treated to news stories about businesses being hurt (grocery stores losing their inventory, myriad businesses being unable to do business, etc.)

   So just occasional outages and problems appears to me to have far wider impact on people than your tone suggests. Particularly if the scale is national

   .

"John Smith"

-- "John Smith" (pobox42@hotmail.com), April 30, 1998.

A comment on your last answer (part 2): I'm a mere consumer of electricity, but I also consider sub-24-hour blackouts to be a mere nuisance compared to what an extended (weeks or months) blackout would do. Barring y2k problems in the water or sewage systems themselves, many of them could continue operating during a 24-hour blackout (or during a longer controlled blackout where essential services get some power). _If_ the phone companies can solve their own y2k problems, they can ride out a 24-hour blackout on batteries, but certainly not a multi-month blackout. Yeah, there would be lots of news stories about the hardships during a blackout of a few days. There might be fewer stories about a nationwide multi-month blackout - I doubt anyone would be in a position to print them!

standard disclaimer: I do not speak for my employer.

-- Jeffrey Soreff (soreff@vnet.ibm.com), April 30, 1998.

David:

My background is electrical engineering, too -- 35 years working with systems that grew into hi-tech computer controlled systems with embedded microprocessors. The information I read, from Roleigh Martin and Rick Cowles, from Computerweekly, and the discussions I've had with people in industries that use embedded systems indicate that there is a much higher probability of utilities failing to stay on line than there is of them not going down. The only real question in my mind is "how long?" Since the safety and the well being of my family depend on this, I'd rather err on the side of caution.

The problem that I see is that everything to date is either negative or is not being made public, or is sheer conjecture. The only way the public is going to get anything other than conjecture is if federal and state governments step in and mandate testing -- with the governments taking the responsibility of notifying the public of the results. The various utilities are not going to test and announce the results, on advice of their lawyers. Some testing -- in a vacuum - will occur. As noted in one Rick Cowles post, (http://www.euy2k.com) testing and remediation is now being urged in order that the companies may demonstrate due dilligence AFTER they've lost power.

Good luck on getting anything constructive out of Con Ed

-- DeAlton Lewis (omb00782@mail.wvnet.edu), May 01, 1998.

The information at albany.net by Mr. Mills has been successfully (my opinion) refuted on other threads at this site. www.euy2k.com is the most extensive discussion on electric utilities I have encountered. If you read all of the info available at that site (which will take you several days), you will be able to formulate the questions you need. I think the question as to whether the firm will provide a frank answer is valid. More and more companies are being advised to route the y2k questioning through a branch of cust svc overseen by general counsel, or by general counsel's office directly. "Knowledable" companies have gone into the "protect from liability" mode. If you are the CEO or CIO of a company and the "true" evaluation is that full remediation will not occur and some failures will happen, but you don't really have a handle on them--do you "lead with your chin" and tell the public now? My prior life spent in the boardroom tells me NO! That type of candor is rarely considered "reasonable and prudent". Might get sued by customers, might get sued by management (after losing your boardroom chair), might get sued by shareholders (make that probably get sued by shareholders). I'd love to read opposing viewpoints about the positions that top managers and board members will take re: y2k candor.

-- P. (ptrades@earthlink.net), May 01, 1998.

I've started to contact some agencies and companies with an emphasis on contingency planning. I know that sending letters triggers a form response, and I am finding that e-mail generates the same often. However phone calls do have a chance of getting through, and if you can reach someone in IT, you have a reasonable shot at getting detailed answers. I find that starting out by asking how much money has been budgeted, and stating up front that more is better because it shows they're making an effort is a good starting point. I then try to get a feel for where they are in inventory/remediation/testing. If you successfully got someone who is involved in the process, they will likely be unable to resist the impulse to tell anecdotes about what they have encountered along the way. Even utilities have point of sale systems (transfer stations and the like) and talking about credit cards with '00 expiration dates can break the ice. Mention the chlorinator bug that Bennett always refers to, or the Hawaiian power plant shut down, and they'll usually counter with one of their own. I also recommend that whoever you talk to, ask who else they think you should talk to (a peer at a related agency, someone at a different branch or department, someone at another level in the organization) and get their phone number, too. When you call that person, make sure you mention how you reached them. And _thank everyone_! As often as possible. The more you come across as a grateful, interested person, the more whoever you speak to will open up to you. The more you come across as hostile, looking for something actionable or needing reassurance, the less you'll get. Of course, there are good odds this won't make any difference at all with something the size of Con Edison. Good luck! I've been pleasantly surprised at how effective the phone can be, if you're willing to sit on hold, and okay with the idea that it'll take 10 phone calls to get hold of the right person. Lesko's _Info-power III_ (mentioned extensively in Jim Lord's book) is how I got started, and it really can be done.

-- Rebecca Allen (rebecca@amazon.com), June 22, 1998.