Dr. Ed Says,

60% Chance of Recession!

(up from 40% in the last quarter of 1997)

On March 15th, 1998, respected economist Edward Yardeni said, "I am raising the odds of a year 2000 recession from 40% to 60%. See my latest Y2K REPORTER, which is open to the public."

You can download a pdf file of the document that contains that prediction from his web site by clicking on the link below. When you get to the page it will take you to, just scan down the left side and look for the date 3/16/98, and the link to its right that says, "Raising the odds of Y2K recession." If you don't have Adobe Acrobat Reader (which you'll need to open and read the pdf file) there's a link there that will take you to a site where you can download a free copy of it.

Go to Ed Yardeni's site now

A Note From Ed Yardeni

You may have seen Ed Yardeni in the segment ABC Evening News with Peter Jennings ran in early March. If not, I thought you might like to read one of his notes...

Date: Sun, 1 Mar 1998 17:27:13 -0800
From: Ed Yardeni
MIME-Version: 1.0
To: y2kreporter-recipient@yardeni.com
Subject: Version 3.6 of Yardeni's Y2K Netbook
X-Priority: 3 (Normal)

I've updated my Y2K netbook, YEAR 2000 RECESSION? I'm critical of President Clinton's new Y2K Conversion Council. It is too little, too late, and too weak. The British government is much more alarmed and acting with a much greater sense of urgency than the US government.

I've also added a section on the State of the States: Some may be ready, but many state agencies will not be ready. I also wonder why the CIOs of the FAA, IRS, and DOD are all leaving.

By the way, the SEC is preparing a standardized Y2K questionnaire that all publicly traded companies will have to fill in twice this year and three times next year, as I proposed on Nov. 4 in my Congressional testimony.

Dr Ed ("Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.")

Ed Yardeni's Year 2000 NetBook

Probably one of the best all-around pieces on the Internet for explaining the year 2000 problem and why it looks like it's going to cause so much trouble. If you're new to the year 2000 problem, or looking for something to help you make your friends, family, or neighbors more aware, have them spend some time reading this. Or, if they don't have computers, download it, print it out, have some copies made, and give it to them. It's real good stuff. Ed Yardeni's providing a great service by making it available.

Yardeni y2k Netbook

Ed Yardeni's Senate Testimony

In Novemeber of 1997, Ed Yardeni testified before the senate. That testimony is considered "classic" by those who have been working to spread the year 2000 word. This is another great document if you're new to this whole thing, or, as in the case of his Netbook, to refer or give copies of to others.

Yardeni Senate Testimony

His Year 2000 Web Page

This web page is an excellent resource for anyone seeking to gain a general awareness of the problem, and a pretty good place to check in once in a while to see what's up. He has links to several other sites and good sources.

Yardeni Year 2000 Resource Center

-- Bill (billdale@lakesnet.net), March 15, 1998