One of the big areas of Y2K concerns utilities, especially electrical utilities. I was about to start up a series of questions-and-answers here, but then noticed that Rick Cowles has just started a Q&A forum of his own within this same Web site (i.e., Phil Greenspun's site at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/index.tcl). It's called "Electric Utilities and Y2K", and I encourage you to check it out.

-- Ed Yourdon (yourdon@sprintmail.com), December 31, 1997

Answers

Ed, Rick Cowles' discussion forum is great but it is limited to Electric Utilities, which admittedly is perhaps the most important utility, but the other utility services are life-threatening if non-operative due to Y2000 problems, such as gas, water, heating oil, telecommunications, etc. Perhaps your forum could limit focus to just these non-electric utilities.

I'm rereading your book for the first time in book form and it's interesting to see what one learns new each time one reads it! I'm curious as to what book reviews have been done on it so far and how it is being treated? Care to provide pointers to book reviews done on Time Bomb 2000?

Happy New Year! -- Roleigh Martin (http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin -- focuses on Y2k threat to core infrastructures - but does not have its own discussion group)

-- Roleigh Martin (marti124@tc.umn.edu), January 02, 1998.

Roleigh,

Thanks for your comment -- we'll do our best to focus on non-electric utilities here, particularly water.

Re your question on book reviews of "Time Bomb 2000" -- nope, none yet. The "galley proofs" were sent to several dozen newspapers and magazines by the Prentice-Hall publicity folks in mid-to-late November, but it usually takes them (the media) a couple of months to get a review published. Don't worry -- as soon as we see some reviews, we'll post them here and on the main www.yourdon.com web site.

-- Ed Yourdon (yourdon@sprintmail.com), January 04, 1998.

Of recent note and of interest to this thread is the following. The Minnesota Software Association has 3000 members and its current newsletter urges its readers to read its feature indepth article on embedded systems and the Year 2000 and the threat to Core Infrastructures.

Click on "Year 2000: A perspective on embedded systems" by Roleigh Martin at the Minnesota Software Association web page: http://www.msa.org/

-- Roleigh Martin http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin (a web site that focuses on Y2k and core infrastructures)

-- Roleigh Martin (marti124@tc.umn.edu), January 09, 1998.

Ed, I encourage you to keep one place for all discussion on Utilties. I for one am having difficulty reading all the stuff that's available and appreciate one place to go to start my reading for updates. Had a good experience last week talking to the data base administrator for t the local electric utility. Among other things he said many companies are working on the y2k problem and are not saying anything until they are more sure of completing on time. I get moer info from talking than from writing letters. I'd like to encourage my colleagues here to get out and talk to as many responsible people as possible. It takes a lot of time but I think it will be worth it. Here's my notes sanitized so I don't inadvertently embarrass my contact.

Notes of meeting with Data Base Administrator, local gas and electric utility, 1/30/1998.

Lights won't go out Jan 1, 2000 because: 1. Utility started working on problem early 1990's 2. Evaluated in-house first, then vendors, etc 3. Customer Information System y2k compliant - 10/97 - in operation 4. Converting corporate systems since 1/97 5. Contacting vendors on mission-critical applications 6. Vendor feedback: is/is not compliant (schedule to get compliant) 7. Plan to be fully y2k compliant by 1/99 8. Utility centralized data processing operation 9. Disaster/Recovery evaluation several times/year 10. Easier to duplicate centralized system for recovery than distributed PC system. 11. Field descriptors in English; kept the source code 12. End users may read the data base but not write back to it 13. Good handle on inventory of embedded chips 14. Contacting vendors for y2k compliant chips 15. Two electric power generators have mulitple fuel sources: coal, oil, natural gas 16. Change fuel sources based on economics 17. Railroad, Hudson River, 3 major gas pipelines, and major fuel depot adjacent to generator plants

Risks: 1. Embedded chips are the wild cards

Will send me the official corporate statement on Y2k as soon as the i's are dotted and t's crossed

Should also contact other adjacent power companies and particularly, New York Power Pool (make this a class assignment)

Three class of year 2000 enterprises: 1. Many prepared in timely fashion, will be y2k compliant 2. Some are overwhelmed by size of problem 3. Some won't address the problem because of ignorance or on risk/reward basis

What did I forget to ask?

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), February 02, 1998.

Had a positive response talking to Training Manager at New York Power Pool. He said they had been actively involved in the y2k issue more than 1 1/2 years and had hired back as a consultant the computer engineer who had done the origigal computer programming. From the following e-mail to some of NYPP personel, I infer they are very concerned with embedded chips.

"I received a call this afternoon from Art Scott of Poughkeepsie, NY, who is interested and concerned about computer operations and the "Y2K" issue. I assured him that the NYPP has been aware of the issue for over a year and that we have staff assigned to address the problem well in advance of the "big day".

Mr. Scott is an Adjunct Professor at Marist College and a retired IBM engineer who worked of IBM main frames for 38 years. With that type of background, it occurred to me that he may be a useful resource for the YK2 staff (especially after he started talking about embedded chips that could be sensitive to the issue).

I would like to forward to Mr. Scott any material on what we or the power industry is doing to address the issue provided it is appropriate and subject to legal challenge or suits.

The New York Power Pool website is at: http://www.nypowerpool.com/who.shtml Note the Power Control Center reliance: "Also on the center panel is the sophisticated time-frequency standard, with its two rows of red digital lights. It receives time signals directly from atomic clocks onboard Global Positioning System satellites orbiting Earth. These clocks are accurate to 150 billionths of a second!

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), February 05, 1998.

Art:

In Re your last post: "Also on the center panel is the sophisticated time-frequency standard, with its two rows of red digital lights. It receives time signals directly from atomic clock onboard Global Positioning System satellites...". See http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/gps_week.html about the following: the GPS system clock rolls over 23:59:59 August 21, 1999. One question I would ask (or test) is what happens to the New York Power Pool (or the national grid for that matter) when the GPS clock rolls over. POTENTIALLY, if the system is improperly engineered, this event could bring the NYP Pool and/or national grid down BEFORE 1/1/2000. Can your contact at NYPP dispell/investigate this potential problem? Please advise.

-- John Tepley (jtepley@fcs.follett.com), February 05, 1998.

Unfortunately, as soon as I started to press for details (also perhaps because cooler heads at NYPP recognized the risks) my welcome was politely but abruptly terminated in the following e-mail: "Our staff involved in the Y2K issue do not have material available for general distribution at this time. There is concern that any release of information would require legal review. The electric utility industry both nationwide and in New York State are addressing the Y2K issue, but we would appreciate that you avoid using our name for fear it will lead to numerous inquiries which, time-wise, we are not equipped to handle. Your comment of the roll over of the GPS in 1999 was forwarded to the appropriate personnel.

Thank you for your interest,"

I suppose I was naive to expect anything different.

If the GPS rollover does cause a screw-up, it may be good early evidence of what will happen on Jan 1 the following year. I plan to have a motor-generator installed by then to run my furnace and refrigerator!

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), February 12, 1998.

Here's my next attempt:

March 2, 1998

Mr. John E. Mack III Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corp. 284 South Avenue Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

Dear Mr. Mack,

As a customer of Central Hudson Gas & Electric Corp. I am very concerned about the upcoming Year 2000 (century rollover) computer problem and possible effects on client records and accounts and, more importantly, on continuous electric service. I would like to know what steps your company is undertaking to assure me that your computer software and hardware is Year 2000 compliant, that customer-related information will not be at risk and that embedded chips will not jeopardize electric service on or about January 1, 2000.

I have been in contact with some of your staff about the customer information software problem and have applied for your Extra Security Plan. I feel fairly reassured that a computer glitch in the customer information system wont cause my electric service to be cut off.

However, the embedded chip problem looks more serious and I would like answers to the following kinds of questions:

7 Does Central Hudson have an inventory of all the embedded microprocessors in all the equipment used to generate and distribute electric energy? 7 Assuming that a small fraction of these chips will be Year 2000 sensitive, does Central Hudson know which ones wont function properly on or about January 1, 2000? 7 Are the replacement parts on order? 7 Are the orders approved? 7 Have vendors been found who can deliver on time? 7 Have the orders been placed with firm ship dates? 7 Is there a schedule for testing the replacement parts? 7 Is there a schedule for installing the replacement parts in the field? While I expect these questions sound impertinent, one Year 2000 sensitive embedded microprocessor in one sensing circuit on one of your major generators, whose manufacturer is no longer in business, could shut down your system for a long time. It will be just as cold on January 1, 2000 as it was 200 years ago. For my part, I am so concerned about the possibility of a shutdown, I intend to purchase and install a motor generator to handle my furnace and refrigerator, with enough fuel to last 3 months.

Ive had one conversation with a person at the New York Power Pool, then a notable silence. Can Central Hudson cut free of the NYPP in the event it malfunctions?

On a professional level be advised that I am putting together a seminar entitled, January 1, 2000, the day the computers phreak out for the Center for Lifetime Studies of Marist College. The audience is primarily literate senior citizens. This seminar, about the personal consequences of the impending year 2000 problem, is intended to be useful for 'ordinary folks' who are not necessarily computer literate and who may be unaware of the pervasive influence of computers in every aspect of their lives. In the section on Jobs, Utilities and Transportation, scheduled for April 15th, I will publish the responses Ive received from you and other institutions. You, or one of your representatives, are welcome to sit in on the seminar to monitor what I say and, if you chose, to spend 10 minutes updating, refuting, etc my presentation of the facts.

I am a retired IBM engineer, who was in on the design of some of the equipment that is now in contention. Im not a paid consultant, but a concerned citizen, who is worried about possible impacts and looking for ways to proactive plan to eliminate the risks we can and reactive plan to minimize the impact of whatever we cant avoid.

Yours truly,

Arthur E. Scott

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), March 02, 1998.

Has anyone heard anything about Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) in California?

-- Annie O'Dea (anniel@mbay.net), March 02, 1998.

Here's the answer I got from the manager of Informations Systems in response to my letter to the Pres and CEO of our local electric utility: The management of Central Hudson is cognizant of the potential impact that Year 2000 computer problems could have upon any organization dependant upon computer processes. Although these impacts are now well recognized, largely due to a number of high profile news articles during 1997, Central Hudson's focus on the problem dates back a few years. Our own work to address this issue formally began in 1995 with the development of the 1996 work plans and initiatives. One of these planned initiatives was the evaluation of the impact of the year 2000 on our Corporate information systems. A complete systems impact analysis was accomplished by July 1, 1996. This analysis revealed that about 6,000 computer programs (68% of the total portfolio) in 13 different systems representing more than 3,000,000 lines of program source code would need to be changed to assure continued operation beyond 1999. A multi-year project plan to address the issue was presented to the Corporate Computer Steering Committee at the July 1996 meeting. This project commenced on January 1, 1997 and is on schedule to be completed in July 1999, although we are slightly ahead of schedule at this time. We have completed Year 2000 conversion work on our largest and most critical information system, the Customer Information System (CIS) and are more than 60% complete with the overall project. In addition to the in-house development work on Corporate information systems, we have contacted software vendors for operating systems, database management systems, network operating systems and specialized applications such as the Energy Management/SCADA System to obtain verification of Year 2000 compliance or a schedule for planned Year 2000 compliance. For the most part, vendors are planning on completing their required Year 2000 changes during 1998. Additionally, we are completing the assessment and plans to address the Year 2000 impact, if any, on "embedded systems", such as programmable logic controllers (PLC) and other types of intelligent electronic devices. These remediation plans are currently being implemented, as necessary. Thank you for your interest.

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), March 30, 1998.

Re: my previous post In a follow-on e-mail with the manager of Informations Systems, I received this invite: "As offered in your letter dated March 21, 1998, I'd appreciate it if you could send any references to utility specific Year 2000 problems to Carlo... Carlo is the project manager for our I.S. related Y2K efforts and is also the focal point for information related to non I.S. Y2K issues, such as "embedded systems".

I would like to provide them with factual information e.g. known problems that affect generation and distribution of electricity, known solutions, clues on where to look for "embedded systems", how to test, known good tools, etc. Time is short and I don't want to inundate them with stuff that won't materially help.

Any suggestions?

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), March 30, 1998.

Art Scott asks:

"I would like to provide them with factual information e.g. known problems that affect generation and distribution of electricity, known solutions, clues on where to look for "embedded systems", how to test, known good tools, etc."

Email Carlo and ask if they have joined the Electric Power Research Institute Y2k embedded systems program -- that is the best thing they can do. The URL is http://www.epri.com/y2k

Also, make sure they visit Rick Cowles and my web site, as well as the private discussion forum at Rick Cowles and the public one at Dave Hall's (SIMS) -- see my 'discuss.htm' page for register instructions.

They should also get the guideline material from IEE, GM, and HSE, and Trans Alta Utilities -- the links are at my 'y2klinks.htm' page.

Hope this helps! See also if you can get his phone number and call him to find out the answer to the EPRI question.

--Roleigh http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin

-- Roleigh Martin (marti124@tc.umn.edu), March 30, 1998.

We had our first session of Center for Lifetime Studies seminar, "01/01/00 Day the Computers' Phreak Out" attended by 14+ active, interested, senior cits. In addition to their own up-to-date examples of y2k risks, they prodded me to invite the local newspaper to participate in publicising the issue. Because a trustee of the college was in attendance, I used the example of the president of a local college who told me to stop sending him y2k imputs unless they helped him get his buildings built or got him more grant money. We'll see if that lights a fire. Probably get me fired but I was looking for a job when I found this one. The subject for the next seminar is, "Jobs, Utilities, Transportation." I've invited the DB mgr for the local utility to come and see what lies I tell about him. A couple of people have asked if they could attend the seminars. It's a little ticklelish since the organization has a waiting list to join. I think I can invite someone if he's part of the presentation, guest speaker, etc. Contact me by email. It's easier to get forgiveness than to get permission.

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), April 10, 1998.

We've had our 2nd session, "Jobs, Utilities, Transportation" of the "1/1/00 Day the Computers Phreak Out" seminar. No representative of the local utility showed up; no representative of the local newspaper showed up! Participants of the seminar were enthusiastic searchers for information, good give and take. Unfortunately, I feel as though I am preaching to the converted. What I think we need is the opposing point of view supported by reasons not just , "It won't happen because I feel it won't happen." I need some help here. Doesn't proving the negative of an assertion, disprove the assertion? We are having trouble here putting forward facts to prove y2k calamity. Are there no facts to prove that it won't happen? Or is it just a matter of piling up as many assertions as possible to support each side of the issue and hoping reasonable people can arrive at a concensus?

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), April 16, 1998.

We've had our 6th session, "Government" of the "1/1/00 Day the Computers Phreak Out" seminar. Representatives of Town of Poughkeepie, Dutchess County and New York State made presentations. While most of us would have liked to see more progress, they are moving. Most progress is being made on the data processing issues. They, as well as we, are very concerned about "embedded systems." The Emergency Planning people want inputs on what to plan for.

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), May 14, 1998.

Finally, a way to begin some rational discussion of the problem of electric utilities:

In Today's Westergaard Year 2000

Today's Feature: "Powerful Prognostications" After his auspicious beginning last week, our new "POWERful Prognostications" columnist, Dick Mills, returns with more of his graphs to shed some light on the lingo and operation of electrical power plants. http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/rc9825.htm

-- Art Scott (Art.Scott@marist.edu), June 26, 1998.