As far as I have been able to tell, the only "distinguished" person making specific predictions about the possible economic impact of a Y2K problem is Edward Yardeni, the chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. Has anyone seen any other forecasts by economists or government agencies?

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 24, 1997

Answers

The chief economists at every Wall Street firm, along with the economists of major governments, are called upon at the end of each year to offer their predictions about the state of the economy in the coming year. Will inflation be up or down, will the stock market be up or down, will unemployment be up or down, will the dollar be up or down with respect to the yen and the mark -- etc, etc, etc. Obviously, many of the economic forecasts for 1998 are based on an assessment of the likely outcome of the financial crisis in Korea and Japan -- but to the best of my knowledge, Dr. Yardeni is the only one whose forecast includes a specific reference to Y2K. The ignorance and/or lack of attention on the part of other economists is very scary.

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 24, 1997.

Not exactly on point, but interesting nonetheless. This is the second update and it is several months old. Perhaps the update is ready to be published.

http://what.inet.jpmorgan.com/MarketDataInd/Research/Y2Kupdate/Y2K.HTM

-- Jim Smith (JDSMITH1@Hotmail.com), December 24, 1997.

Re: Dr. Yardeni: I understand, Dr. Yardeni will be guest for full half hour on CNBC's "Moneyline" on New Year's Eve at 7pm Eastern.

Steve

-- Steve Alley (alley@uninets.net), December 26, 1997.